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Bristol Palin Will Win Dancing With the Stars

Posted by on November 21, 2010 at 4:52 PM EST

bristol-palin-wins-dancing-with-the-starsBristol Palin will win Dancing With the Stars and here is the break down of how she can do it.

Bristol Palin will win Dancing With the Stars. There, I said it. The sad and/or funny thing is that I actually believe it. Don’t believe me? Think there is no way it could happen? Let’s do the math and see for ourselves how it looks.

Former DWTS contestant Mark Cuban made a great blog post this last week explaining how the scoring works on the show. He says that while the scoring is supposed to be set up so that the judge’s scores and the audience votes have the same amount of influence, that doesn’t happen and the scoring is actually very heavily skewed in favor of the voters. Here is how it works. Say, for example, Kyle Massey gets a 29 on his final dance. Jennifer Grey gets a 30 and Bristol get a 25. So she is 4 points behind Kyle and 5 points behind Jennifer and it would seem like that is a lot of ground to make up. However the scores are actually weighted by the percentage of the total points given out, not by the actual numbers. Between the three dancers the judges awarded a total of 84 points. Jennifer got 36% of those votes (rounding), Kyle got 35% of the votes and Bristol got 28% of the votes. This means she only needs to get 7.1% more votes than Kyle and 8.1% more votes than Jennifer to win. To put that in real numbers if Jennifer and Kyle each get 10 million votes Bristol only needs to get 10.81 million votes and she wins. The difference is only 810, 000 votes.

Now that number may seem big, but let’s take some realities into consideration. First off, she obviously has the support of the conservative viewers and those who like/support her mom. There is also a segment of the population that seems to love the fact that she is just an average person who has never danced before and has never been in show business before and they are voting for her. In recent weeks the Vote For the Worst website has thrown their support behind Bristol. They can mobilize a lot of votes from people who haven’t even watched the show. There are a lot of people who now think it is funny and want her to win because it is ridiculous to think that she can win a dance competition. Her winning would basically mean that a major network show that millions of people watch got punked. There are plenty of people out there that think that is funny and will vote for her just because of that. It is a perfect storm of voting that has carried Bristol into the finals. All she has to do is get close in score to Kyle and Jennifer and she can mobilize the votes to win this.

So there you have it. I think Bristol Palin is going to win dancing with the stars and I think the numbers show that she really has a legit shot at it.



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