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American Idol Top 5 Winner Odds, Predictions

Posted by on April 29, 2011 at 5:26 PM EST

american idol top 5Odds and predictions for the American Idol 2011 Top 5 and season winner.

And then there were five. Last night Casey Abrams was voted off of American Idol leaving five contestants left to battle it out. What is most interesting to me is that the remaining five are all different in their sounds and styles. To me this means the field is pretty much wide open. I’ll break down the American Idol Top 5 and give you my personal odds of their chance of winning it all.

Jacob Lusk, in my eyes, has the worst odds of winning American Idol of any of the remaining contestants. I would say he is easily 50 to 1 or greater. The reason for this is that the last few weeks he has found himself in the bottom three multiple times and seems to be just barely surviving. I won’t be at all shocked to see him as the next one voted off.

Lauren Alaina seems to have a very strong following that has helped her get this far without really even flirting with going home. She is likable and I think her age helps her connect to the younger members of the audience. Still, she is a girl which will weigh against her in the eyes of some voters and this last week she wasn’t that great. If the pressure gets to her it could hurt her. I give her about 10 to 1 odds of winning it.

Haley Reinhart seems to have come through the storm and arrived. She was a regular visitor to the bottom three, but in the last few weeks she has done really well and seems to be coming into her own. Like Lauren, being a girl could hurt her and that she is good looking and reportedly involved with Casey Abrams which might hurt her as well with the young female voters who love Casey. I give her about an 8 to 1 chance of winning American Idol.

Until this week’s trip to the bottom three Scotty McCreery seemed to have been a shoe in for the final two and a favorite to win it all. If he has a weakness it is that he is old school country and while there are plenty of fans that like that, there are also plenty of fans who may not. They may not hate him, but they may just end up voting for someone else. Still, he is solid and I still think he will be in the final two so I give in a 3 to 1 chance of winning it all.

The overall American Idol favorite, in my eyes, is James Durbin. He is great week in and week out and even when the theme for the week doesn’t seem to suit him very well he finds a way to make it work. His voice is amazing, he is poised on stage and seems like he is handling the pressure fine. Most important of all he seems to be having fun and that causes we the viewers to have fun right along with him. James is a solid 2 to 1 to win it all.

There you have it, my odds for the Top 5 on American Idol. I think it will come down to a final two of James Durbin and Scotty McCreery with James taking it home. We will have to stay tuned over the next several weeks of American Idol to see how my prediction plays out.



(1) Reader Comment

  1. There was no bottom 2 or 3 on American Idol this week….Ryan stated twice that it was all done in random order except the person going home. Scotty was not in the bottom and I resented that they made it appear that he was. It was all smoke and mirrors, going for the shock effect, cause we all know Scotty’s never been in the bottom. Please get your facts straight.

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